How to use base rates before you trust an ambitious forecast
Build the comparison before debating why your company is different.
From the journal
Category: Decision Psychology
How to run a premortem before a major business commitment
Run a business premortem before authorizing a major commitment by asking participants to imagine that it has failed and explain how. Collect separate contr...
How to avoid letting the first number control your estimate
Reduce the influence of a first number by gathering estimates and assumptions before showing a preferred budget or forecast. Compare the evidence behind th...
How to keep groupthink out of executive decision meetings
Collect independent recommendations before discussion, then give challenge a defined task and a decision deadline.
Is comparison with other CEOs changing your business priorities?
Test status-driven priorities by identifying the comparison that triggered the proposed change and asking whether the business case stands without it.
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Which business decisions need more care before you commit?
A small initial commitment can create lasting obligations. Map the exit before treating a decision as easy to reverse.
How to tell whether executive confidence exceeds the evidence
Compare executive confidence with resolved forecasts rather than the force of a presentation.
Was it a bad decision, or a reasonable bet that failed?
Evaluate a failed decision by reconstructing the information, alternatives, and reasoning available when the commitment was made.
How to compare priorities when every initiative looks essential
Choose priorities by identifying the best feasible alternative that each commitment displaces.
How to use a dissenting view without letting one person stall you
Preserve contrary evidence while keeping the decision owner and deadline explicit.